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Tariffs and Trade

Historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, which results in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output. For example, the effects of higher steel prices, largely a result of the Bush administration’s 2002 US steel tariffs, led to a loss of nearly 200,000 jobs in the steel-consuming sector, a loss larger than the total employment in the steel-producing sector at the time. It’s also worth noting that measures of trade flows, such as the trade balance, are accounting identities and should not be misunderstood to be indicators of economic health.

We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts. Explore our analysis of Trump trade war policies below.

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